Trump said Wednesday he does not want a deal with Iran, following reports that the U.S. military is preparing for possible strikes against the country. "I think the deal isn't really something that I want to do, but they're willing to offer us anything to stop," Trump said at a campaign rally in San Antonio, Texas. He added that Steve Witkoff, the U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, has been working on negotiations and "doing very well."
NBC News reported Wednesday that the U.S. president and his national security team have discussed resuming large-scale military operations in coming weeks, citing a U.S. official and another person with knowledge of the discussions. Axios reported earlier that a possible resumption in armed conflict could include "massive bombing" of Iranian energy, infrastructure and nuclear targets. Axios also reported that military action could influence the outcome of upcoming midterm elections.
Trump's approval ratings have fallen to a record low amid concerns over high living costs spurred by rising gasoline and diesel prices, according to the report.
Earlier this week, Trump said the biggest problem was that nobody knew who was running Iran during conflict-ending talks. Iranian officials rejected those claims. Iran's foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeli Baghaei pointed to "contradictory positions and mixed messaging from U.S. officials" as the actual problem.
Crude oil prices have remained elevated despite Middle East exports recovering to near pre-war levels. Combined crude volumes exiting the Gulf (excluding Iran) plus volumes from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were around pre-conflict levels of 18.5 million barrels per day, according to Kpler data.
Matt Wright, lead freight analyst at Kpler, said "normalisation no longer needs to wait for a deal," forecasting "slower, uneven normalisation" under continued conflict, with traffic recovering through operational adaptation rather than waiting for a diplomatic trigger.