Trump said Thursday that the U.S. will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm election, explicitly linking the timing of potential military action to domestic politics. He made the statement on Truth Social, saying "We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" and added that the U.S. was having "productive discussions" with Tehran.
The announcement marks a reversal from Trump's position less than 24 hours earlier. On Wednesday night at a campaign rally, he told reporters his administration was considering renewed strikes against Tehran before the election. That comment sent oil prices higher, with Brent crude rising more than 4% Thursday to above $104 a barrel.
Trump said the U.S. naval blockade of Iran would remain in place and repeated that Tehran would not be allowed to obtain a nuclear weapon. He also claimed Thursday that 22 million barrels of oil moved through the Strait of Hormuz overnight with none from or going to Iran. CNBC noted it has not independently verified that figure. Kpler data showed about 11.3 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products exited the strait during the week ended Tuesday.
Public support for military action against Iran has declined. A Reuters/Ipsos poll from August found just 31% of Americans supported U.S. military action against Iran, down from 37% in March. Eighty-three percent expected the conflict to be prolonged.
The shift to a more diplomatic stance comes as voters cast midterm ballots and the war has compounded Republican vulnerability on affordability. Gas prices have climbed roughly 40% from a year ago, standing at $4.36 a gallon Thursday compared to $2.98 before the war began in late February. Multiple polls rank the cost of living among voters' top concerns.
Reuters reported in September that top Trump aides had been pushing to keep the war contained through the midterms to limit Republican losses, leaving open heavier U.S. strikes after votes are counted. Trump's latest statement aligns with that strategy. The U.S. is sending roughly 9,000 sailors and Marines and a third aircraft carrier to the region, with potential for three U.S. carriers in the Middle East by late October, according to the Associated Press.