Ukraine's drone campaign against Russian oil infrastructure has severely damaged Moscow's diesel export capacity, undermining a deal struck between President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin to increase Russian fuel supplies to global markets.
More than 1,000 Ukrainian drones struck Russian targets on Sunday alone, igniting an oil export terminal in St. Petersburg. The assault came after Ukraine ended a brief energy ceasefire that Trump declared on October 11, citing Moscow's immediate violation of the truce.
Ukraine's strikes have crippled Russia's ability to export diesel, according to Tatiana Mitrova, an expert on the Russian oil industry at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy. Russia ranked as the world's second-largest diesel supplier before the attacks.
Rochan Consulting data shows Ukraine escalated strikes on Russian refineries and related oil infrastructure to 31 in July, up from 11 in January. These attacks have become more sophisticated, targeting complex refining equipment that takes months to replace because supply chains exist outside Russia, Mitrova said. "You cannot just order it on Alibaba. You need to make your order in advance," she explained.
The damage reduced Russia's diesel exports by more than 75 percent to 141,000 barrels per day in September, compared with 608,000 bpd the same month last year, according to Kpler data. In July, Moscow banned all exports to preserve domestic supplies, then partially resumed shipments this month under Trump's deal.
Under that agreement, the Kremlin pledged to supply approximately 75,000 barrels per day in October and 124,000 bpd in November. But Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, said those volumes offer little relief. "It seems unlikely that they'll be able to bring the volume of diesel back to the market that they are talking about without an energy ceasefire," he said.
National diesel prices averaged $6.32 per gallon on Tuesday, nearly 75 percent higher than the same period last year, according to AAA. Trump has blamed Ukraine for the surge as midterm elections approach.
The global diesel shortage reflects damage from two separate conflicts. Iran's attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and strikes by Houthi militants have disrupted Middle Eastern fuel exports by roughly 540,000 bpd, Smith said. Combined Russian and Middle Eastern losses total about 1 million barrels per day in global diesel exports.
The International Energy Agency warned this month that diesel supplies will likely remain constrained well into 2027. U.S. refineries already operate at maximum capacity to compensate.